Anthropic Eyes $2 Trillion IPO, But Profits Lag Behind
Source: Fortune. Casualplayhub News adds summary, context, and editorial framing while linking back to the original report.
Anthropic, the private AI firm behind the Claude chatbot, is gearing up for what could be the most valuable initial public offering in history. A group of its backers told the Financial Times this week that they expect the company to go public in October with a valuation of $2 trillion or higher, easily eclipsing SpaceX's record $1.77 trillion IPO in June. That valuation would more than double the $965 billion the company was worth during its Series H funding round in May. Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that Anthropic is in talks to acquire AI startup Decart AI for $6 billion, a move that could bolster its compute efficiency.
Anthropic confidentially filed for an IPO with the Securities and Exchange Commission in June, but has not publicly set a timeline. Rival OpenAI also filed soon after, but is not expected to go public until 2027. The awkward twist is that Anthropic is not yet profitable. To justify a $2 trillion valuation, it would need to deliver annual net income in the range of $59 billion to $79 billion, based on the average price-to-earnings multiples of the Nasdaq 100. The company is making progress: The Wall Street Journal reported that its second-quarter 2026 revenue would more than double to $10.9 billion, and it would post an operating profit for the first time. But operating profit isn't net income. It doesn't account for interest or taxes, and for a capital-intensive frontier lab, the gap could be vast.
Avery Marquez, director of investment strategies at Renaissance Capital, said reaching near operating profitability would make the huge valuation seem less outlandish. At $2 trillion, Anthropic would join an exclusive club of seven companies globally, including Nvidia, Alphabet, Apple, Microsoft, TSMC, and Amazon. Amazon, which earned $77.7 billion in net income last fiscal year, is the closest peer. Notably, Amazon's own profits are partly boosted by its investment in Anthropic, which contributed $53.4 billion in non-operating income in its most recent quarter.
Anthropic's run-rate revenue surged from $9 billion at the end of 2025 to $47 billion by mid-May. Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff estimated the run rate had reached $74.1 billion, surpassing OpenAI's $41.3 billion. Benioff praised Anthropic's enterprise hat trick: the best model (Claude), best coding agents (Claude Code), and best productivity tool (Cowork). Salesforce is an early investor and customer.
Evan Schlossberg of Neostellar Capital Corp., whose fund holds a position in OpenAI, said the key question when he sees Anthropic's S-1 will be its compute sourcing. Does Anthropic own its servers, lease them long-term, or rely on short-term leases? Owning or locking in capacity provides predictable costs and better margins. Anthropic has deals with Amazon, Google, Broadcom, and GPU access through SpaceX. The Decart acquisition would bring software to optimize chip performance and an inference team.
Marquez noted that if Anthropic goes first, it sets the benchmark for OpenAI. Anthropic's enterprise revenue is sticky and predictable, while OpenAI has massive consumer brand recognition. But both face a compute bottleneck. Schlossberg said strong demand for Anthropic's IPO would be a positive signal for OpenAI, as it suggests similar market trends. He added that no single AI model is likely to dominate global demand due to compute constraints. Marquez sees Anthropic's valuation turning up the heat on OpenAI, which will have to decide whether to double down on enterprise or focus on consumer monetization. The big hurdle for Anthropic is establishing which financial metrics matter. "The big hangup for the valuation is, what metrics make sense for this company?" she said. OpenAI will have a clear peer to compare against, but that doesn't necessarily help it.
Article commentary
Anthropic's ambition to go public at a $2 trillion valuation is a bold bet on the future of AI, but the numbers reveal a stark disconnect between market expectations and financial reality. The company is racing to justify a price tag that would place it among the world's most valuable enterprises, yet it has barely turned a profit. This is not unusual for high-growth tech companies, but the scale of the gap is unprecedented. To match the valuation multiples of the Nasdaq 100, Anthropic would need to generate net income on par with Amazon, a company that has spent decades building a global logistics and cloud empire. Anthropic, by contrast, is a relatively young AI lab with a single product line. The projected path to operating profitability by mid-2026 is encouraging, but operating profit is a far cry from net income. The company's capital needs are enormous: training frontier models requires billions of dollars in compute, and the talent war in AI is fierce. Even if Anthropic achieves operating profit, interest on debt, tax obligations, and reinvestment costs could keep net income elusive for years. Investors will need to look beyond traditional metrics and accept a longer time horizon, which is a hard sell for public markets that prize quarterly results. Anthropic's enterprise focus is a strategic advantage. Corporate clients tend to have higher switching costs and more predictable revenue streams than individual consumers. This is a clear differentiator from OpenAI, which dominates the consumer chatbot market but faces churn and monetization challenges. However, enterprise sales cycles are longer, and the market for AI coding tools and productivity software is becoming crowded. Anthropic's revenue growth is impressive, but maintaining that momentum will require sustained innovation and customer acquisition. Compute access is another critical factor. Anthropic's deals with Amazon, Google, and Broadcom provide some security, but the company does not own its own chip fabrication. The Decart acquisition, if completed, could improve efficiency, but it doesn't solve the long-term dependency on hardware suppliers. Short-term leases or reliance on third-party cloud providers could erode margins and introduce volatility. The ability to control compute costs will be a key determinant of future profitability. The IPO timing also has strategic implications. Going first forces OpenAI to price against a live competitor, which could be either a boon or a burden. If Anthropic's IPO is well-received, it lifts the entire AI sector. If it stumbles, it could cast a shadow over OpenAI's eventual debut. The fact that Anthropic is leading the charge suggests confidence in its story, but it also increases scrutiny. The market will watch closely to see whether the company can deliver on its promises of sustainable growth and eventually, profits. Ultimately, the $2 trillion valuation is a bet that AI will transform the global economy in ways that current financial models cannot fully capture. Anthropic is not just selling a chatbot; it's selling a platform for the future of work. Whether that vision is worth the price tag will depend on execution, market conditions, and the pace of technological advancement. For now, the narrative is compelling, but the numbers have yet to catch up.