For decades, the United States has maintained the world’s most sophisticated and sought-after military arsenal — a sprawling inventory of precision-guided missiles, stealth aircraft, naval vessels, and advanced electronics that underpins its global power. But months of sustained combat operations against Iran have taken a heavy toll on that stockpile, drawing down critical munitions at a rate not seen since the height of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The result, warn defense analysts, is a growing gap between military commitments and the hardware needed to fulfill them.

Foreign policy and military specialists now question whether the U.S. can rapidly pivot to deter or defeat other adversaries. The war with Iran, which began after a series of escalations in the Persian Gulf, has consumed thousands of cruise missiles, precision bombs, and drone interceptors. While the Pentagon has not released exact figures, independent assessments suggest that the inventory of certain types of munitions has fallen below the benchmarks set by the National Defense Strategy. This depletion limits the military’s ability to simultaneously defend allies in Europe, the Middle East, and the Indo-Pacific.

On a recent episode of “Compass Points,” moderator Nick Schifrin sat down with three seasoned experts to dissect the problem. Bill LaPlante, a former Pentagon acquisition chief, argued that the current conflict has exposed weaknesses in the defense industrial base. “We are burning through precision munitions at a pace that the industrial base was never designed to sustain,” LaPlante said. “The question is not whether we can win in Iran, but whether we can still fight and win any other war.”

Randy Schriver, a former senior Defense Department official for Asia, focused on the strategic consequences. He warned that China and Russia are closely watching the U.S. logistical strain. “Adversaries are not just monitoring our military movements; they are crunching numbers on how many missiles we have left,” Schriver noted. “If they see a window of vulnerability, they will exploit it.”

Celeste Wallander, a former assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, offered a different perspective. She argued that the U.S. military still retains qualitative advantages that cannot be easily replicated. “Our technology, training, and network of alliances are not just about numbers,” Wallander said. “Even with a reduced stockpile, we can still deter aggression through signal and posture.” However, she conceded that the longer the conflict continues, the harder it becomes to maintain that edge.

The discussion highlighted a central tension: the need to support ongoing operations in Iran while simultaneously rebuilding for future contingencies. The Pentagon has already begun emergency procurement measures, but experts say that ramping up production of complex systems like Javelin antitank missiles or Tomahawk cruise missiles can take years. Meanwhile, the U.S. Navy has reduced its presence in the South China Sea and the Baltic Sea to free up assets for the Iranian theater, a move that allies in Taipei and Tallinn view with deepening unease.

LaPlante emphasized that the defense budget is finite. “Every dollar spent on replenishing munitions for Iran is a dollar not spent on modernization or on the other combatant commands,” he said. “We are making hard choices, and some capabilities will inevitably degrade.”

Schriver added that the political will to sustain such a conflict is also a factor. “The American public and Congress have a limited tolerance for long wars without clear success,” he said. “If the administration cannot show rapid progress, pressure to de-escalate will grow, and that could be interpreted as weakness by adversaries.”

Wallander, however, urged caution against overstating the crisis. “The United States has faced stockpile challenges before and recovered,” she said. “The key is recognizing the problem early and making the right investments now.”

As the war in Iran grinds on, the U.S. military confronts a sobering reality: the arsenal that once seemed inexhaustible is finite, and the choices made today will shape the global balance of power for years to come.