J.J. McCarthy earned a spot on the Minnesota Vikings’ 53-man roster, but the third-year quarterback’s place on the team is far from secure. The Vikings, like every other NFL franchise, reduced their roster from 90 players to 53 ahead of Sunday’s 6 p.m. ET deadline. McCarthy made the cut, even though he lost the starting quarterback competition to Kyler Murray during training camp and failed to solidify his hold on the No. 2 job behind Carson Wentz.

McCarthy’s preseason performance did little to inspire confidence. He completed 9 of 17 passes—a 52.9% completion rate, well below league average—for 115 yards and two interceptions, with no touchdowns. He also missed Minnesota’s preseason finale against the Denver Broncos due to an ankle injury. Meanwhile, Wentz played significantly better, completing 21 of 29 passes (72.4%) for 188 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. Despite the disparity, ESPN’s depth chart still lists McCarthy as the QB2, though the Vikings are expected to release an updated version later this week.

The Vikings’ decision to keep McCarthy buys him some breathing room, but the clock is ticking. His future hinges largely on how Kyler Murray performs during the regular season. If Murray, the 2019 Offensive Rookie of the Year, struggles, the Vikings could turn to McCarthy—the No. 10 overall pick in the 2024 draft. Head coach Kevin O’Connell has emphasized that the organization remains committed to McCarthy’s development, even after he lost the starting job. But if Murray thrives, the calculus changes dramatically.

Murray is playing on a one-year deal with Minnesota. Should he lead the Vikings back to the playoffs after a 9-8 finish in 2025, the team might push for a contract extension. The urgency would be heightened by the franchise’s recent mistake with Sam Darnold. After Darnold went 14-3 as the Vikings’ starter in 2024, Minnesota let him sign a three-year, $100.5 million contract with the Seattle Seahawks in free agency. Darnold then replicated that 14-3 record and won his first Super Bowl—a painful reminder of what could have been.

If the Vikings commit to Murray long-term, McCarthy’s role becomes murky. Can Minnesota trust him as a backup? His preseason struggles against second- and third-string defenders suggest he needs significant improvement. That also makes him less attractive to potential trade suitors. McCarthy made the initial roster, which is a small victory, but it does little to solidify his long-term future in Minnesota. The team’s decision at quarterback will reverberate through the season and beyond.