Three Bold Predictions for the Houston Rockets' 2026
Source: SI NBA. Casualplayhub News adds summary, context, and editorial framing while linking back to the original report.
The NBA free agency whirlwind has finally quieted, leaving most franchises with a clear blueprint for the season ahead. While some teams are remodeling their identity, others are banking on chemistry and continuity. The Houston Rockets, who posted a 52-30 record last season, are brimming with anticipation as they head into training camp. The return of steady-handed point guard Fred VanVleet provides a reliable floor general, but the real excitement surrounds the burgeoning partnership of Kevin Durant, Alperen Sengun, and Amen Thompson. This trio has shown flashes of dominance, and with Durant still playing at an elite level at 37, the Rockets are operating with a win-now mentality. Although Houston was bounced in the first round of the playoffs, the team's trajectory suggests a breakthrough could be imminent. Here are three bold predictions for the 2027 season.
1. Amen Thompson Secures His First All-Star Selection
Amen Thompson’s leap in production has been impossible to ignore. Over 79 games, the 23-year-old averaged 18.3 points, 7.8 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 1.5 steals, earning a top-10 finish in Defensive Player of the Year voting. His versatility on both ends of the floor makes him a nightly threat. However, the biggest hurdle remains his three-point shooting, which sat at just 21.6%. The Rockets have brought in assistant coach Chip Engelland, renowned for his work with shooters, to refine Thompson’s mechanics. If that improvement materializes, Thompson could evolve into a two-way star and earn his first All-Star nod in a loaded Western Conference.
2. Alperen Sengun Earns All-NBA Honors
Sengun has already cemented his status as an All-Star, posting 20.4 points, 8.9 rebounds, and 6.2 assists across 72 games. His assist numbers for a center were second only to Nikola Jokic, drawing natural comparisons to the three-time MVP. But Sengun’s playmaking is just one part of his game. His ability to score in the post, stretch the floor, and read defenses makes him a unique offensive hub. Another season of consistent growth could push him into the All-NBA conversation, especially if the Rockets continue to win. His development is central to Houston’s long-term aspirations.
3. Rockets Advance to the Western Conference Finals
Last season, Houston secured the fifth seed in the West, but that label was misleading. They were only three wins behind the Lakers and Nuggets, showing they could compete with the conference’s elite. Durant averaged 26.0 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 4.8 assists over 78 games, proving he remains a top-tier talent. With the Spurs and Thunder looming as primary obstacles, the Rockets have already demonstrated they can beat both. A healthy roster, combined with continued growth from Sengun and Thompson, gives Houston a realistic shot at winning its first Western Conference semifinal series since the James Harden era. The pieces are in place for a deep playoff run.
Article commentary
The Houston Rockets are at a fascinating inflection point. After a 52-win season that ended earlier than hoped, the franchise is balancing veteran experience with youthful potential. The three predictions outlined here are ambitious but not unreasonable, given the team's current composition. Amen Thompson’s All-Star candidacy hinges on one glaring weakness: his three-point shooting. In today’s NBA, a guard who shoots 21.6% from deep is a liability in spacing, especially in the playoffs. However, the hiring of Chip Engelland is a calculated move. Engelland has a track record of transforming shooters, most notably Kawhi Leonard and Tony Parker during his time with the Spurs. If Thompson can become even a league-average shooter, his defense and athleticism would make him a perennial All-Star candidate. The Western Conference is stacked with guards, but Thompson’s unique skill set could set him apart. Alperen Sengun’s All-NBA case is more straightforward. His numbers already mirror those of elite big men, and his playmaking is rare for a center. The main obstacle is team success. All-NBA selections often reward winning, and the Rockets need to make noise in the playoffs for Sengun to get the votes. If Houston can secure a top-four seed, Sengun’s chances improve dramatically. The comparison to Nikola Jokic is both a blessing and a curse—it raises expectations, but also highlights Sengun’s ceiling. The prediction of reaching the Western Conference Finals is the boldest of the three. The West is a gauntlet, with the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs both on the rise. The Thunder have a young core and cap flexibility, while the Spurs have Victor Wembanyama and a strong supporting cast. The Rockets’ advantage lies in experience. Kevin Durant has been to the conference finals multiple times, and Fred VanVleet has championship pedigree. But durability is a concern. Durant has dealt with injuries in recent years, and the Rockets’ depth will be tested. A single injury to a key player could derail their hopes. Overall, the Rockets are a team on the cusp. Their bold predictions reflect a roster that is both talented and hungry. The next season will reveal whether these forecasts are prescient or overly optimistic. For now, Houston fans have every reason to be excited.