Chet Holmgren's DPOY Hopes: Can He Surpass Wembanyama?
Source: SI NBA. Casualplayhub News adds summary, context, and editorial framing while linking back to the original report.
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The buzz around Oklahoma City this season isn't just about Shai Gilgeous-Alexander chasing another MVP trophy or Ajay Mitchell's Sixth Man candidacy. It's about Chet Holmgren's pursuit of the Defensive Player of the Year award—a prize that slipped through his fingers last year by a single slot. Holmgren finished runner-up to San Antonio's Victor Wembanyama, who became the first unanimous DPOY in NBA history. That margin stings, but it also fuels a narrative that Holmgren could be this season's biggest award upset.
Wembanyama's dominance on that end is almost mythical. Standing 7-foot-4 with a wingspan that seems to bend physics, he blocked shots at a rate that made him a one-man defensive system. He entered this season as the heavy favorite on DraftKings at -360 odds, while Holmgren opened at +1200—a clear underdog but not an impossible one. Holmgren's own defensive résumé is stout: last season he averaged 1.9 blocks per game and posted a 102.3 defensive rating, good enough to earn him an All-NBA Defensive First Team selection alongside Wembanyama. He anchored a Thunder defense that surprised many by finishing among the league's best.
The key difference this year might come from an unexpected source: Aday Mara. The 7-foot-4 rookie adds another towering presence to Oklahoma City's frontcourt, meaning opposing offenses can no longer simply avoid Holmgren's shot-blocking zone. With Mara lurking in the paint, teams will face layers of length that could force more turnovers and hurried shots—directly benefiting Holmgren's defensive metrics. This is a luxury Wembanyama doesn't enjoy in San Antonio, where the Spurs' supporting cast remains thin on rim protection.
Still, head-to-head matchups tell a different story. Whenever Holmgren and Wembanyama face off, the Spurs center tends to get the better of the exchange. These two young rivals—both generational talents in their own right—are already developing a compelling personal duel. For Holmgren to seize the DPOY trophy, he must not only maintain his individual numbers but also help Oklahoma City win those critical games against San Antonio, especially if they meet in the playoffs.
The path is steep, but not unprecedented. Holmgren has already shown he can hang with elite competition. His blend of mobility, timing, and instincts is rare for a player his size. The addition of Mara and a full season of defensive chemistry with Gilgeous-Alexander and Luguentz Dort could elevate the Thunder's collective defense to new heights. If Holmgren can replicate—or even slightly improve—his 1.9 blocks per game while maintaining a defensive rating below 103, he'll have a compelling case.
Wembanyama, however, isn't standing still. The Spurs star is expected to refine his ability to guard multiple positions and expand his impact beyond rim protection. Voters may lean on narrative inertia, rewarding the known commodity unless Holmgren produces an undeniable season. That means Holmgren must do more than just be great—he must be historic. With Mara providing backup and a Thunder roster built for contention, all the pieces are in place. Now it's up to Holmgren to turn the odds into reality.
Article commentary
The race for Defensive Player of the Year is shaping up to be a classic narrative of the established king versus the hungry challenger. Victor Wembanyama's unanimous win last season was a statement: his unique physical gifts and instinctual play made him an instant defensive force unlike anything the league has seen. But Chet Holmgren's runner-up finish, combined with his All-NBA Defensive First Team selection, proves that the margin is narrower than the odds suggest. The inclusion of Aday Mara in Oklahoma City's rotation is a strategic wild card. Holmgren's case last year suffered from a lack of complementary rim protection; teams could scheme to draw him away from the basket or force him into isolation. With Mara, the Thunder can deploy a twin-tower lineup that clogs driving lanes and forces perimeter shooters to rush. This could inflate Holmgren's block and steal numbers while improving the team's overall defensive rating—a metric that heavily influences DPOY voting. Yet Wembanyama's advantage goes beyond stats. There's an intimidation factor that Holmgren, despite his 7-foot-1 frame, hasn't fully established. Wembanyama changes shot selection just by being on the floor. Opponents think twice before entering the paint. Holmgren's style is more mobile and positional, which can be equally effective but less visually dominant. Voters often gravitate toward the dramatic—the chase-down blocks, the alley-oop denials, the games where a single player single-handedly disrupts an offense. Wembanyama provides that spectacle nightly. Another layer is the team context. The Thunder are legitimate title contenders, while the Spurs are still rebuilding. Playoff success doesn't directly impact regular-season awards, but narratives do. If Holmgren leads Oklahoma City to the league's best record while anchoring a top-three defense, the story becomes hard to ignore. Conversely, if San Antonio misses the playoffs again, some voters might penalize Wembanyama for not translating his defense into wins—an unfair but persistent bias. The head-to-head matchups will be pivotal. Last season, Wembanyama often got the better of Holmgren, but those games were early in their careers. With experience and a stronger supporting cast, Holmgren could flip that script. A dominant performance against the Spurs in a nationally televised game would resonate with voters. Ultimately, this is a two-man race coiled for a dramatic showdown. Holmgren has the tools, the team, and the motivation. Wembanyama has the track record and the mystique. The award will likely come down to durability, consistency, and a few signature moments. If Holmgren can sustain his elite defensive play through an 82-game grind and steal a couple of marquee matchups, he has a real chance. But betting against a generational talent like Wembanyama is rarely wise. Expect a tight vote, with the outcome hinging on which player makes the louder statement.